Who Will Win The 2024 Chicago Marathon?

This weekend is the 46th running of the Chicago Marathon, and the fifth Abbott World Marathon Major of the year. 

Much like the Berlin Marathon, which took place two weeks ago, many of the runners in this year’s Chicago Marathon have something to prove. 

They are among the world’s greatest marathoners, and they weren’t selected for the biggest race of the year: the Paris Olympic Marathon. 

Now they’ll stand on the start line in Grant Park knowing that the course is fast, and they’ve got the chance to become a Marathon Major champion – and with no clear favourites, and strong competition to win and to be top American, we’re looking forward to an exciting race.

Here are the runners to look out for in the 2024 Chicago Marathon.

If you want to know more about the race then we’ve posted our ultimate guide to the Chicago Marathon.

HOW’S THE WEATHER LOOKING?

Last year’s race was a perfect weather day with bright skies and cold temperatures (crisp mid-40s, or around 7ºC) and that led to a new men’s world record (Kelvin Kiptum’s 2:00:35), and a new women’s course record and the second-fastest run of all time (Sifan Hassan’s 2:13:44). But how’s it looking this year?

Two days ahead of the race it’s set to be unseasonably hot (over 80ºF/28ºC), but the temperature drops dramatically for the weekend, just in time for the race. Sunday morning’s forecast is for a mix of sunshine and clouds and temperatures of around 56ºF/13ºC, which is pretty good. One issue could be the north-westerly winds, which seem to be increasing through the morning. That could give a challenging headwind for miles two to eight and then for the final three miles.

A THREE-PEAT FOR CHEPNGETICH IN THE WOMEN’S RACE? 

The women’s race at the 2024 Chicago Marathon features two of the fastest 10 women of all time, and four Marathon Major winners. 

Kenya’s Ruth Chepngetich knows how to run Chicago, having won there in 2021 and 2022, and was runner-up in 2023. In 2022’s race she ran her personal best of 2:14:18, which is the fourth-fastest of all time.

Ethiopia’s Sutume Kebede won this year’s Tokyo Marathon in 2:15:55, making her the fastest woman in the world this year, and the eighth-fastest woman of all time. 

Kenyan Joyciline Jepkosgei (2:16:24), has won both the London and New York City Marathons, and was fourth in the 2023 Chicago Marathon.

Ethiopia’s Ashete Bekere Dido won the 2019 Berlin Marathon, and finished third in London in 2021. In that race, fellow Ethiopian Degitu Azimeraw finished second in 2:17:58, and she is the fifth-fastest in this year’s Chicago Marathon. 

With their pace and pedigree, and a decent weather forecast, we could potentially see someone challenge Sifan Hassan’s course record of 2:13:44, which is also the second-fastest women’s marathon of all time. But will anyone be brave enough to go for it?

WILL THERE BE A NEW AMERICAN WOMEN’S RECORD?

Close behind – or perhaps even alongside – the women’s leaders we’ll also be following to see if there’s a new women’s American record set.

At the 2022 Chicago Marathon, Emily Sisson ran the US women’s best time of 2:18:29 as she finished second in the race behind Chepngetich. Sisson ran in the Olympic Marathon so isn’t in Chicago, but the second, third, fifth and 12th fastest American women of all time are racing in the Windy City this weekend. 

Keira D’Amato ran 2:19:12 to win the 2022 Houston Marathon in what was then the fastest US women’s time, only to be surpassed by Sisson later in the year. 

Betsy Saina was one of the favourites to be on the US women’s marathon team in Paris, but dropped out of the Olympic Trials at mile 21. She bounced back just a few weeks later and ran a personal best of 2:19:17 at the 2024 Tokyo Marathon. She’s the fastest American marathon runner in the world this year.

Sarah Hall ran her best time of 2:20:32 in 2020. That year she also finished second in the 2020 London Marathon, then the following year was third in the Chicago Marathon. At 40-years-old Hall ran 2:26:06 for fifth place at the US Olympic Trials, and that time set a new US master’s record.

Emma Bates was runner-up in the 2021 Chicago Marathon, and was on course for a fast time in the 2023 race before partially tearing her plantar fascia, and slowing significantly in the second half. She didn’t recover in time for the Olympic Trials marathon, but was fit for this year’s Boston Marathon and finished as first American. She’ll be looking to lower her best time of 2:22:10.

WILL IT BE A TIGHT AND TACTICAL MEN’S RACE?

The race is honouring the late Kelvin Kiptum, who ran his incredible world record of 2:00:35 at last year’s Chicago Marathon, and no one will wear bib number 1 as a mark of respect. 

The fastest man in the field is Ethiopia’s Birhanu Legese who ran 2:02:48 in Berlin in 2019, making him the sixth-fastest man, though he hasn’t run close to that time in the last five years (he ran 2:05 in Rotterdam earlier this year), so this could be a race between some of the 2:03, 2:04 and 2:05 guys. 

There’s Kenyans Amos Kipruto (PB: 2:03:13, Tokyo 2022) and Vincent Ngetich (PB: 2:03:13, Berlin 2023), and Ethiopians Dawit Wolde (PB: 2:03:48, Valencia 2023) and Amdework Walelegn (PB: 2:04:50, Rotterdam 2024).

Between them they’ve performed well in big races. Legese has won Tokyo twice (2019 and 2020), and finished second in Berlin (2019). Kipruto won the 2022 London Marathon, Ngetich was runner up at the 2023 Berlin Marathon, and Wolde was third at the 2023 Valencia Marathon. There could be a close race in Chicago this year, which might be more tactical than fast.

WHO WILL BE THE TOP AMERICAN MALE IN CHICAGO?

There’s a strong list of American runners, with several 2:09 and 2:10 guys, including: Zach Panning, Brian Shrader, CJ Albertson, Reed Fischer and Nathan Martin. Between them there are four of the top 10 finishers in the US Olympic Trials in February – but no Paris Olympians.

Panning led for much of the Olympic Trials before fading and finishing sixth, while fourth-placed Albertson will no doubt be going for first-placed American in Chicago. 

We’re very unlikely to see anyone challenge Khalid Khannouchi’s 2:05:38 American record, or his best time in Chicago of 2:05:56 (or Ryan Hall’s best of 2:04:58 which he ran in Boston, which is not record eligible), but the race for top American in Chicago should be just as exciting as the race for the podium places – and that competition could push some of these guys to lifetime best performances, and even to challenge for the top three spots. 

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What runners and stories are you excited to see in this weekend’s Chicago Marathon?

Image © 2023 Bank of America Chicago Marathon/Kevin Morris