Will A Woman Run A Four-Minute Mile? Research Says It’s Possible

The women’s world record in the mile is 4:07.64, run by Kenya’s Faith Kipyegon. Will we see a woman run a four-minute mile? And what would it take for a woman to run a four-minute mile?

These were questions that a group of researchers tried to answer recently, primarily focused on whether optimised aerodynamics would be enough to achieve the time.

They looked at Kipyegon’s record-breaking time and applied aerodynamic theory and their results suggest that she could potentially have run 3:59.37. 

KIPYEGON’S REMARKABLE WORLD RECORD

Faith Kipyegon ran her one mile world record of 4:07.64 at the Stade Louis II in Monaco on 21 July 2023. She beat the previous record by almost five seconds. 

Kipyegon is the three-time Olympic champion over 1500m and the world record holder over the distance, having run 3:49.04 in Paris in July 2024. She has run five of the top 10 times over 1500m. 

As the greatest women’s middle distance runner of all time, it made sense for researchers to base their study on Kipyegon. 

ALL ABOUT AERODYNAMICS & PACERS

As the researchers state in their overview: “We quantitatively explore if improved aerodynamic drafting could allow [Kipyegon] to run just 3.19% faster and thus break the 4-minute mile barrier.”

The study was led by Prof Rodger Kram, a physiologist at the University of Colorado Boulder, who was part of the team working on Eliud Kipchoge’s Breaking2 Project. He argues – and does the equations to show how – that if Kipyegon had optimal pacemakers and drafting in her world record, she could have cut the wind resistance she faced by 72%, and ran seven-seconds quicker.

The perfect scenario would see one pacer 1.2m in front of Kipyegon and one 1.2m behind, with the pair of pacers swapping with fresh runners at 800m. 

The paper concludes with the statement: “Our calculations suggest that with greatly improved (but reasonable) aerodynamic drafting, Kipyegon could break the four-minute mile barrier. We find that she could feasibly run 3:59.37 with two teams of female pacers.”

BUT DOES THE THEORY STAND UP TO REALITY?

The paper ends with one key comment: “It should be noted that there is considerable variability among the drafting effectiveness values reported in the literature.” And this is where the physics equations and research hits reality and its unknown variables.

An eight-second improvement means running two seconds per lap faster than her existing record. In Kipyegon’s mile world record she ran the first 800m in 2:04 and the last 809m in 2:03; she would need to run under 1:59 for each 800m. In her 1500m world record she ran the final 400m in just under 60 seconds.

So is sub-four feasible?

There are many improvements currently contributing to faster times on and off the track. 

• Supershoe technology has seen great advances in times.
• There are developments in nutrition, with bicarb proving particularly effective over short distances.
• There’s ongoing research optimising training and recovery.
• We’re better able to understand the implication of drafting and aerodynamics, and we have the ability to test this theory in a time trial situation.
• Pacing wave lights can visually show a runner and those watching where the world record mark is.

Combine these with a generational athlete who is a slight runner (Kipyegon is 1.57m) who could benefit from using tall pace makers (800m Olympic Champion Keely Hodgkinson is 1.70m, for example), and we can begin to get excited about a moonshot performance. 

HOW COULD A WOMEN’S FOUR-MINUTE MILE HAPPEN?

Under World Athletic rules having rotating pacers would disqualify it as an official world record should Kipyegon or another athlete break four minutes.  

So a women’s four-minute mile attempt using two sets of pacemakers would need to be run as an exhibition. 

Kipyegon is a Nike athlete, so the brand could organise a sub-four attempt in the same style as Kipchoge’s 1:59 marathon. In that situation, they could choose the perfect track, and have exactly the right pacers and pacer formation to give Kipyegon the best chance of success.

We’re seeing more exhibition races put on my brands, and events set up to shoot for fast times. A sub-four mile event would surely be a popular race, and a brilliant showcase of elite female running.

It’s also worth considering that this research was done specifically on Faith Kipyegon’s one mile world record. She may be the best middle distance runner we’ve ever seen, but there will inevitably be faster runners in the future, who grow up and train with all the benefits we’re experiencing right now, plus future scientific and technological advances. 

WHEN WILL A WOMAN RUN A FOUR-MINUTE MILE?

We may still be a long way from a woman running a four-minute mile. But given the right athlete and the right conditions, which may include two optimally positioned pacers, that time may be achieved in the near future. 

Just remember when the first prediction came of a man running a two-hour marathon. Many thought it was impossible, but Eliud Kipchoge proved that it could be done – and soon someone will break that barrier in a race. And people thought that a man may never be able to run a four-minute mile. Then Roger Bannister did it in 1954 and thousands of runners have since broken four. The men’s mile record is now 3:43.13. 

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What do you think: when will we see a woman run a four-minute mile? 

Image from ATHLOS Games