Race Preview: Who Will Win The 2024 New York City Marathon? 

The 2024 TCS New York City Marathon, which takes place on Sunday 3 November, will be one of the biggest marathons in the world, with over 50,000 finishers. But who will be the first male and first female to cross the finish line in Central Park?

The Paris 2024 Olympic Marathon was 12 weeks ago, just enough time to recover and rebuild, and we’ve got three medallists running in New York City. They are joined by past NYC champions and podium finishers from around the Marathon Majors, plus a strong line up of American runners.

The New York City Marathon is a challenging course, giving us a slower Championship-style race, and we often see thrilling finishes – in the women’s race, the biggest margin of victory in the past three years has been just seven seconds!

COULD WE SEE ANY COURSE RECORDS?

Yes, definitely. The weather forecast currently looks perfect for marathon running, with start line temperatures of around 50ºF/10ºC, with low humidity and no wind to worry about. 

Tamirat Tola ran the men’s course record of 2:04:58 in 2023, and the Ethiopian is back to race in 2024. There are several men in the field capable of running below this time, even on a difficult course like New York City.

The women’s record of 2:22:31 was set in 2003 by Kenya’s Margaret Okayo. Eight women in the field have run faster than that time, and given this year’s competitors we could see that 20-year old time challenged – but it’ll take someone to push the pace, rather than running a tactical race.

THE 2024 NEW YORK CITY MARATHON MEN’S RACE

This favourite in the men’s field will be Ethiopia’s Tamirat Tola. He won last year’s NYC Marathon in a new course record of 2:04:58, and he won the Paris Olympic Marathon, setting a new Olympic record. He’s also the marathon World Champion from 2022. 

Tola’s personal best is 2:03:39, set at the 2021 Amsterdam Marathon, which ‘only’ makes him the 29th fastest of all time, but he’s a proven winner on tough, hilly courses, and in championship races. 

Belgium’s Bashir Abdi is familiar with chasing Tola, winning silver behind him in the Paris Olympic Marathon, and bronze in the 2022 World Championship marathon. His 2:03:36 personal best is the European record, and he’s a very consistent performer, though has never won a Major. He’ll certainly be looking to finally finish ahead of Tola. 

As well as Tola, there are three other defending men’s champions in the race.

Kenya’s Albert Korir won NYC in 2021, and was second in 2019 and 2023. His personal best is 2:06:57, which is several minutes slower than other runners in the race, but he knows how to run well in New York.

Geoffrey Kamworor, the former half marathon world record holder, won the race in 2017 and 2019, and was second in 2015 and third in 2018. The Kenyan ran his personal best of 2:04:23 to finish second in the 2023 London Marathon. 

Evans Chebet won New York in 2022, having won the Boston Marathon earlier that year (he also won Boston in 2023). The Kenyan’s personal best is 2:03:00, the fastest in the field and joint-11th fastest all time. He was third in the 2024 Boston Marathon. He’s another runner who knows how to do well on hard, hilly courses.

And there are more contenders in a stacked field. Dutch national record holder Abdi Nageeye finished third at the 2022 NYC Marathon and has a best time of 2:04:45, which he ran at this year’s Rotterdam Marathon. He won silver at the 2020 Olympic Marathon but was a DNF at the Paris Olympic Marathon.

Kenya’s Abel Kipchumba won this year’s NYC Half and is back to run double the distance. His marathon best is 2:06:49 (Berlin 2022), but with a 58:07 half marathon personal best (Valencia 2021), he’ll be looking to lower his marathon time. 

And watch out for 20-year-old Ethiopian Addisu Gobena who was the surprise winner of the 2024 Dubai Marathon (2:05:01), which was his debut over 26.2 miles. 

THE AMERICAN MEN

American viewers will be watching Conner Mantz and Clayton Young. The pair train together and have raced and finished very close together in their previous three marathons, including the US Olympic Marathon Trials were they were the top two, and the Olympic Marathon where Mantz finished eighth and Young was ninth.

Mantz’s personal best is 2:07:47 and Young has run 2:08:00, making them the seventh and eighth fastest American men in history. They’ll both be running for top American, but they could also be in contention for podium places (aiming to be the first American male on the podium since 2016) – don’t be surprised to see Mantz near the front if it’s a slower race.

Also in the field are Elkanah Kibet, who finished fourth at this year’s U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials, and CJ Albertson, who was fifth at the U.S. Olympic Marathon Trials. Albertson was first American at the Chicago Marathon just a few weeks ago (in a personal best of 2:08:17), and first American at this year’s Boston Marathon, so he’s aiming for three first American finishes in the US Majors in one year. 

THE 2024 NEW YORK MARATHON WOMEN’S RACE

In the last three years, the women’s winning margin in New York has never been more than seven seconds, with the race won in the final few turns. We follow, enthralled, for two hours and 20-something minutes and wait for a sprint finish, and that’s what makes New York so good to watch. 

In 2024, the defending champion is back. Kenya’s Hellen Obiri won New York in 2023, having won the Boston Marathon earlier that year. She won Boston again in 2024 and then won bronze in the Paris Olympic Marathon, so she’s in good form and starts as the favourite. Her personal best is 2:21:38, which only makes her the eighth fastest in the field, but she wins hilly races. 

Sharon Lokedi won the 2022 New York Marathon on her debut over the distance, then she finished third there in 2023, second at the Boston Marathon in 2024, and was just four seconds behind Obiri in the Olympic Marathon, meaning she missed the medals. Her run in Paris was a personal best of 2:22:45.

Kenya’s Edna Kiplagat is another previous champion and she has one of the best records of any female marathoner, having won New York (2010), London (2014) and Boston (2017, 2021), and finishing second or third in seven other Majors, including third at this year’s Boston Marathon, showing that the 44-year-old is still competitive. Like Obiri and Lokedi, she lives and trains in the US. 

The fastest woman in the field is Sheila Chepkirui, who ran 2:17:29 at the 2022 Valencia Marathon. She finished second in the 2023 Berlin Marathon in 2:17:49, and was sixth at this year’s London Marathon. 

Ethiopia’s Tirunesh Dibaba ran her personal best of 2:17:56 to finish second at the 2017 London Marathon (then the third-fastest marathon ever run, and pre-supershoes). That year she also won the 2017 Chicago Marathon, but hasn’t seen similar success since. Before running marathons, she won three Olympic gold medals over 5000m and 10,000m. She is returning to running after a few years off.

Kenya’s Vivian Cheruiyot won the 2018 London Marathon in her best time of 2:18:31, and in the same year was runner-up in the New York City Marathon. She’s an Olympic gold medallist (5000m, 2016).

Senbere Teferi has finished fifth in both Berlin and Boston, and the Ethiopian has a personal best of 2:19:21 (Berlin 2023), making her the fourth-fastest in the field. Ethiopia’s Dera Dida finished third at this year’s Dubai Marathon, just a few seconds outside of her personal best of 2:19:24. She’s married to Tamirat Tola, so they’ll be hoping for family celebrations in New York.

THE AMERICAN WOMEN

Dakotah Popehn (more familiar to us as Dakotah Lindwurm, and racing under her new married name) was the top American finisher at the Paris Olympic Marathon, where she finished 12th in 2:26:44, just two minutes off her personal best on a challenging course. 

Sara Vaughn’s best marathon time is 2:23:24 from Chicago 2023. She was back in Chicago a few months ago, but DNF’d and is hoping to bounce back quickly in New York.

Jessica McClain was fourth in the Olympic Trials (running a PB of 2:25:46), and flew to Paris as a possible replacement for injured Fiona O’Keefe. She’s in good form, having won the US 10k championships and finishing second in the US 20k championships.

Des Linden, an American marathon icon and winner of the 2018 Boston Marathon, is racing, but hasn’t had any significant successes in recent years (11th at the Olympic Trials this year and 16th at Boston). 

Aliphine Tuliamuk hasn’t raced since 2023 and has been coming back from injury. Kellyn Taylor is also returning from injury after running the US Olympic trials in both the marathon and 10,000m. 

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Who do you think will win the 2024 New York City Marathon? 

All images courtesy of NYRR.